Arm Holdings plc
📈 TradingView Chart
ARM carries a Buy consensus from 38 analysts with a mean price target of $281.58. The high estimate reaches $500.00 while the low sits at $125.00. Current price ($366.39) trades 30% above the mean target, suggesting analysts see near-term overvaluation.
📊 Technical Snapshot
| Indicator | Signal | Value |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 🟡 Neutral | 44.9 |
| MACD | 🔴 Bearish | -2.364503502790434 |
| Bollinger Bands | 🟡 Neutral | Upper $453.54 / Mid $370.77 / Lower $287.99 |
| SMA (50) | 🟢 Above | $274.04 |
| SMA (200) | 🟢 Above | $170.37 |
| OBV | 🟢 Bullish | 🟢 Uptrend |
| ATR (14) | 🔴 High | 11.5% |
| Volume | 🟡 Neutral | Normal |
📈 Multi-Agent Strategy Signals
| Strategy Signal | Signal | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 Trend & Momentum | ||
| MA Crossover | 🟡 Neutral | Price vs SMA crossovers — no clear signal. |
| Trend Following | 🟢 Bullish | Higher highs/lows on weekly. |
| Momentum | 🟡 Neutral | RSI, MACD readings — RSI at 54.0. |
| 💰 Valuation & Growth Quality | ||
| P/E Ratio | 🟢 Bullish | Trailing 426.0x / Fwd 118.8x — earnings catching up to price. |
| EPS Growth | 🟢 Bullish | Forward multiple compression narrative intact. |
| Market Position | 🟢 Bullish | ~$391.3B market cap, S&P 500 inclusion catalyst. |
| 📊 Volume & Flow | ||
| OBV Trend | 🟢 Bullish | OBV trending higher, accumulation confirmed. |
| Volume Activity | 🟡 Neutral | Normal volume. |
| Volatility (ATR) | 🔴 Normal | 3.1% daily range — size positions accordingly. |
| 🌐 Market Dynamics | ||
| 52W Position | 🟡 Neutral | 19.1% below 52W high of $452.70. |
| Sector Rel. Strength | 🟢 Bullish | Sector comparison. |
| Macro Sensitivity | 🟡 Neutral | Monitor macro conditions. |
| 🔧 Technical Patterns | ||
| Bollinger Position | 🟡 Neutral | Price inside bands but near upper. |
| MACD Histogram | 🔴 Bearish | -2.36 — momentum accelerating. |
| MA Alignment | 🟢 Bullish | SMA20 > SMA50 > SMA200 — textbook. |
| RSI Regime | 🟡 Neutral | RSI at 54.0, approaching overbought. |
🎲 Game Theory Equilibrium
The multi-agent game model positions ARM within the ai (compute) sector. The equilibrium score reflects network effects from interconnected ecosystem participants.
| Metric | Solo Score | Equilibrium Score | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | 0.652 | 0.839 | +0.187 |
Ecosystem force: 62.4% | Signal: bullish | Confidence: medium
Top Influencers:
| Player | Power | Weight | Contribution | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 0.872 | +0.6 | +0.5232 | us-compute |
| AAPL | 0.668 | +0.7 | +0.4676 | platform-other |
| QCOM | 0.632 | +0.6 | +0.3792 | mobile-edge |
| GOOG | 0.756 | +0.5 | +0.3780 | us-ai-lab |
| TSM | 0.758 | +0.4 | +0.3032 | us-compute |
Scenario Probabilities
| Scenario | Probability | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| 🔵 Best Case | 24% | Ecosystem tailwinds accelerate (NVDA scaling, cloud capex surge) — but competitors likely saw it first |
| 🟡 Base Case | 47% | Current equilibrium holds — though our data lags competitors’ |
| 🔴 Worst Case | 29% | Export controls widen or competitor disruption — risk likely understated by public data |
🤖 TimesFM AI Forecast
Google’s TimesFM 2.5 foundation model forecasts the next 10 trading days using price history patterns. This is a zero-shot model — no fine-tuning, no overfitting.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Signal | 🔴 Bearish |
| Trend | ↘️ Bearish (confidence 18%) |
| Forecast Volatility | 50.7% avg daily 80% CI width |
| Model | TimesFM 2.5 (200M params, 16K context) |
| Context Window | 60 trading days |
📊 Forecast Table
| Day | Point Forecast | 80% Lower | 80% Upper | Range ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $363.31 | $323.42 | $423.75 | ±$50.16 |
| 2 | $365.36 | $315.05 | $439.40 | ±$62.17 |
| 3 | $369.49 | $308.86 | $456.53 | ±$73.83 |
| 4 | $368.33 | $298.46 | $466.37 | ±$83.96 |
| 5 | $367.91 | $290.72 | $473.91 | ±$91.59 |
| 6 | $366.58 | $281.63 | $482.88 | ±$100.62 |
| 7 | $362.15 | $268.39 | $483.28 | ±$107.44 |
| 8 | $359.78 | $260.12 | $487.15 | ±$113.51 |
| 9 | $357.09 | $252.02 | $493.12 | ±$120.55 |
| 10 | $353.14 | $244.63 | $494.48 | ±$124.93 |
Interpretation: The forecast trend is determined by the slope of the point forecast. The 80% confidence interval captures the model’s uncertainty — narrower bands indicate higher confidence. Anomaly flags trigger when the current price falls outside the model’s expected range, suggesting a potential regime change or news-driven move.
🐋 Smart Money Sentiment / Market Flow
Insider Ownership: 0.07% Institutional Ownership: 95.42% of float Institution Count: 10
Top Institutional Holders
| Holder | Shares | % Out |
|---|---|---|
| Dz Bank Ag Deutsche Zentral Genossenschafts Bank, Frankfurt Am Main | 9,376,278 | ~0.9% |
| Morgan Stanley | 4,463,815 | ~0.4% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | 4,218,729 | ~0.4% |
| Schroder Investment Management Group | 3,824,345 | ~0.4% |
| Invesco Ltd. | 2,952,231 | ~0.3% |
Top 5 concentration: ~2.3% of outstanding shares
Insider Activity (Last 6 Months)
- 🟢 Purchases: 0 shares (0 txns)
- 🔴 Sales: 302,915 shares (17 txns)
- Net Shares Sold: 302,915 shares (17 txns)
Verdict: All insider activity is selling — no executive has bought ARM shares on the open market in the last 6 months. The magnitude is modest relative to total executive holdings but the direction is unambiguous.
Recent Notable Transactions | 2026-06-02 00:00:00 | BARTELS LAURA KATHLEEN | 11,306 shares | | 2026-06-01 00:00:00 | ABBEY WILLIAM | 6,566 shares | | 2026-05-28 00:00:00 | ABBEY WILLIAM | 4,200 shares | | 2026-05-22 00:00:00 | ABBEY WILLIAM | 2,300 shares | | 2026-05-21 00:00:00 | ABBEY WILLIAM | 4,655 shares |
Data source: yfinance SEC filings (13F) for institutional holdings, Form 4 filings for insider transactions.
Options Market (3 Nearest Expirations)
| Expiration | Call OI | Put OI | P/C OI Ratio | Call Vol | Put Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | 26,851 | 31,706 | 1.18 | 20,261 | 15,205 |
| 2026-07-02 | 5,369 | 7,179 | 1.34 | 2,277 | 3,306 |
| 2026-07-10 | 2,599 | 3,434 | 1.32 | 1,764 | 1,511 |
Data source: yfinance options chains.
Short Interest
- Shares Short: 18,511,799
- Short % of Float: 12.74%
- Days to Cover (Short Ratio): 1.58
- Signal: Moderate short interest.
- Month-over-Month: 🔴 Increased 2,397,359 shares (14.9%)
Bid-Ask Spread: 68.32% (🔴 Wide spread)
Data source: yfinance — short interest reported bi-monthly by exchanges.
About Arm Holdings plc
HQ: Cambridge | CEO: Mr. Rene Anthony Andrada Haas | Employees: ~9,584 | Market Cap: ~$391.3B | Revenue: $4.92B
Arm Holdings plc researches, develops, licenses, and markets central processing unit (CPU) intellectual property (IP), graphics processing unit IP, systems IP, compute subsystems (CSS), and associated software, tools and related services. The company provides a product portfolio, including CPU IP, GPU and neural processing unit (NPU) accelerators, system IP such as interconnects, compute platform products including pre-integrated CSSs, and development tools and software. The company serves semiconductor companies, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), cloud service providers (CSPs), and organizations developing chips for end markets such as smartphones, consumer electronics, industrial IoT, embedded systems, cloud data centers, networking, automotive, and robotics. It provides its products and services in the United States, China, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and internationally. The company was founded in 1990 and is based in Cambridge, United Kingdom. Arm Holdings plc operates as a subsidiary of SoftBank Group Corp.
Products & Services
- Custom application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) for hyperscale AI
- Ethernet solutions (controllers, adapters, switches, transceivers)
- Interconnect products including PAM4 DSPs, silicon photonics, and CPO chipsets
- Storage controllers (HDD, SSD, NVMe, NVMe over Fabrics)
Highlights
- +20% YoY revenue growth
- Market capitalization of ~$391.3B
- Free cash flow of $0.75B
- Beta of 3.79 (high volatility)
Future Growth
- Custom AI ASIC programs with multiple hyperscale partners driving design wins
- 1.6T optical interconnect transition on the horizon
- Expanding data center connectivity portfolio
📊 Market Context
| Market Context | 1W | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ── ARM Performance ── | |||||
| ARM | -7.6% | +19.5% | +133.3% | +235.2% | +145.4% |
| SOX | +1.4% | +10.5% | +69.2% | +90.3% | +157.1% |
| ── US Indices ── | |||||
| S&P 500 | -1.9% | -1.4% | +11.7% | +7.6% | +22.2% |
| NASDAQ | -3.0% | -2.9% | +16.7% | +10.1% | +30.3% |
| Dow Jones | -0.6% | +2.1% | +11.3% | +7.5% | +21.3% |
| ── International Semis Markets ── | |||||
| KOSPI (Korea) | -4.0% | +8.4% | +55.8% | +101.8% | +174.0% |
| TAIEX (Taiwan) | +5.2% | +12.9% | +46.4% | +64.8% | +116.6% |
| ── Crypto & Commodities ── | |||||
| Bitcoin | -2.4% | -18.6% | -8.6% | -29.1% | -40.7% |
| Gold | -5.0% | -9.0% | -9.5% | -4.8% | +21.9% |
| WTI Crude | -4.3% | -24.6% | -19.4% | +26.8% | +6.3% |
📰 News Summary
No recent news available for this ticker. Key Takeaway: Market events and catalysts shaping the current outlook.
(Sources: Multiple financial news outlets)
📚 Sources
| Source | Data Used |
|---|---|
| Yahoo Finance (ARM) | Stock price, financials, market cap, volume, bid-ask spread |
| Yahoo Finance Key Statistics | P/E ratios, EPS, short interest, shares outstanding |
| SEC EDGAR | Insider transactions (Form 4), institutional holdings (13F) |
| Yahoo Finance Options | Options chain — open interest, volume, put/call ratios |
| Finviz (ARM) | Analyst consensus, price targets, technical indicators |
| TradingView (ARM) | Interactive chart, historical price data |
| DeepSeek LLM | News summarization and multi-agent strategy analysis |
All data is for informational purposes only. Verify independently before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or trading advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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