ASML Holding N.V.
📈 TradingView Chart
ASML carries a Strong Buy consensus from 15 analysts with a mean price target of $1719.64 [1]. The high estimate reaches $2335.62 while the low sits at $884.36 [2]. Current price ($1929.25) trades 12% above the mean target, suggesting analysts see near-term overvaluation [3].
📊 Technical Snapshot
| Indicator | Signal | Value |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 🟡 Bullish | 67.3 |
| MACD | 🟢 Bullish | +12.230544042990203 |
| Bollinger Bands | 🟡 Neutral | Upper $1982.15 / Mid $1749.41 / Lower $1516.67 |
| SMA (50) | 🟢 Above | $1588.90 |
| SMA (200) | 🟢 Above | $1270.39 |
| OBV | 🟢 Bullish | 🟢 Uptrend |
| ATR (14) | 🟡 Elevated | 5.1% |
| Volume | 🟡 Neutral | Normal |
📈 Multi-Agent Strategy Signals
| Strategy Signal | Signal | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 Trend & Momentum | ||
| MA Crossover | 🟡 Neutral | Price vs SMA crossovers — no clear signal. |
| Trend Following | 🟢 Bullish | Higher highs/lows on weekly. |
| Momentum | 🟢 Bullish | RSI, MACD readings — RSI at 65.7. |
| 💰 Valuation & Growth Quality | ||
| P/E Ratio | 🟢 Bullish | Trailing 64.1x / Fwd 40.1x — earnings catching up to price [4]. |
| EPS Growth | 🟢 Bullish | Forward multiple compression narrative intact. |
| Market Position | 🟢 Bullish | ~$743.6B market cap, S&P 500 inclusion catalyst [3]. |
| 📊 Volume & Flow | ||
| OBV Trend | 🟢 Bullish | OBV trending higher, accumulation confirmed. |
| Volume Activity | 🟡 Neutral | Normal volume. |
| Volatility (ATR) | 🔴 Normal | 0.3% daily range — size positions accordingly Yahoo Finance. |
| 🌐 Market Dynamics | ||
| 52W Position | 🟡 Neutral | 1.5% below 52W high of $1958.00 Yahoo Finance. |
| Sector Rel. Strength | 🟢 Bullish | Sector comparison. |
| Macro Sensitivity | 🟡 Neutral | Monitor macro conditions. |
| 🔧 Technical Patterns | ||
| Bollinger Position | 🟡 Neutral | Price inside bands but near upper. |
| MACD Histogram | 🟢 Bullish | +12.23 — momentum accelerating. |
| MA Alignment | 🟢 Bullish | SMA20 > SMA50 > SMA200 — textbook. |
| RSI Regime | 🟡 Neutral | RSI at 65.7, approaching overbought. |
🎲 Game Theory Equilibrium
The multi-agent game model positions ASML within the ai (compute) sector. The equilibrium score reflects network effects from interconnected ecosystem participants.
| Metric | Solo Score | Equilibrium Score | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | 0.672 | 0.861 | +0.189 |
Ecosystem force: 63.0% | Signal: bullish | Confidence: medium QuantBrainAI
Top Influencers:
| Player | Power | Weight | Contribution | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 0.758 | +0.8 | +0.6064 | us-compute |
| NVDA | 0.872 | +0.5 | +0.4360 | us-compute |
| 005930.KS | 0.690 | +0.5 | +0.3450 | memory |
| AVGO | 0.784 | +0.4 | +0.3136 | us-compute |
| 000660.KS | 0.738 | +0.4 | +0.2952 | memory |
Scenario Probabilities
| Scenario | Probability | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| 🔵 Best Case | 24% | Ecosystem tailwinds accelerate (NVDA scaling, cloud capex surge) — but competitors likely saw it first |
| 🟡 Base Case | 47% | Current equilibrium holds — though our data lags competitors’ |
| 🔴 Worst Case | 29% | Export controls widen or competitor disruption — risk likely understated by public data |
🤖 TimesFM AI Forecast
Google’s TimesFM 2.5 foundation model forecasts the next 10 trading days using price history patterns. This is a zero-shot model — no fine-tuning, no overfitting.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Signal | 🔴 Bearish |
| Trend | ↘️ Bearish (confidence 0%) |
| Forecast Volatility | 13.57% avg daily 80% CI width |
| Model | TimesFM 2.5 (200M params, 16K context) |
| Context Window | 60 trading days |
📊 Forecast Table
| Day | Point Forecast | 80% Lower | 80% Upper | Range ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1923.23 | $1850.56 | $2001.70 | ±$75.57 |
| 2 | $1914.06 | $1822.41 | $2006.36 | ±$91.97 |
| 3 | $1905.32 | $1789.70 | $2012.02 | ±$111.16 |
| 4 | $1887.51 | $1754.59 | $2007.53 | ±$126.47 |
| 5 | $1887.60 | $1754.25 | $2016.07 | ±$130.91 |
| 6 | $1904.69 | $1759.85 | $2039.71 | ±$139.93 |
| 7 | $1894.28 | $1734.87 | $2031.00 | ±$148.07 |
| 8 | $1913.65 | $1748.01 | $2059.76 | ±$155.88 |
| 9 | $1917.44 | $1743.47 | $2066.17 | ±$161.35 |
| 10 | $1910.57 | $1729.06 | $2064.44 | ±$167.69 |
Interpretation: The forecast trend is determined by the slope of the point forecast. The 80% confidence interval captures the model’s uncertainty — narrower bands indicate higher confidence Google TimesFM. Anomaly flags trigger when the current price falls outside the model’s expected range, suggesting a potential regime change or news-driven move.
🐋 Smart Money Sentiment / Market Flow
Insider Ownership: 0.01% ↗ Institutional Ownership: 19.63% of float ↗ Institution Count: 10
Top Institutional Holders [5]
| Holder | Shares | % Out |
|---|---|---|
| Fisher Asset Management, LLC | 4,600,512 | ~1.2% |
| Capital World Investors | 3,733,385 | ~1.0% |
| FMR, LLC | 3,148,406 | ~0.8% |
| State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co | 2,758,173 | ~0.7% |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 2,131,979 | ~0.6% |
Top 5 concentration: ~4.2% of outstanding shares [5]
Insider Activity (Last 6 Months) [5] No insider filings found in the last 6 months — no SEC Form 4 data returned for ASML.
Data source: yfinance SEC filings (13F) for institutional holdings, Form 4 filings for insider transactions.
Options Market (3 Nearest Expirations) [6]
| Expiration | Call OI | Put OI | P/C OI Ratio | Call Vol | Put Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | 6,826 | 8,316 | 1.22 | 3,157 | 4,761 |
| 2026-07-02 | 1,524 | 4,044 | 2.65 | 556 | 2,356 |
| 2026-07-10 | 1,193 | 2,220 | 1.86 | 376 | 954 |
Data source: yfinance options chains.
Short Interest [4]
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Short | 1,026,452 |
| Short % of Float | 0.27% |
| Days to Cover (Short Ratio) | 0.65 |
| Signal | Low short interest relative to float — limited squeeze potential |
| Month-over-Month | 🔴 Increased 296,350 shares (40.6%) Yahoo Finance |
Bid-Ask Spread: -1.58% (🟡 Tight spread) [3]
Data source: yfinance — short interest reported bi-monthly by exchanges.
About ASML Holding N.V.
HQ: Veldhoven | CEO: Mr. Christophe D. Fouquet ↗ | Employees: ~43,882 ↗ | Market Cap: ~$743.6B | Revenue: $33.69B [7]
ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, it provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. Additionally, the company offers hardware, software, and services to chipmakers to produce the patterns of integrated circuits. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.
Products & Services
- EUV lithography systems — sole supplier worldwide for advanced chip manufacturing [9]
- DUV lithography systems (immersion and dry)
- Metrology and inspection systems (YieldStar, HMI e-beam)
- Computational lithography software solutions
Highlights
- +13% YoY revenue growth [7]
- Market capitalization of ~$743.6B [3]
- Free cash flow of $8.24B [8]
- Beta of 1.40 [4]
- ASML is the sole global supplier of EUV lithography systems required for sub-7nm chip production [9]
- BofA raised price target to $2,345 in June 2026, maintaining a Buy rating [10]
Future Growth
- High-NA EUV systems entering production — key enabler for sub-2nm nodes [9]
- Expanding installed base service revenue as EUV fleet grows
- China export controls creating strategic tailwinds for non-China allocation [10]
📊 Market Context
| Market Context | 1W | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ── ASML Performance ── | |||||
| ASML | +1.9% | +18.1% | +38.2% | +81.0% | +157.0% [3] |
| SOX | +3.8% | +19.9% | +85.9% | +106.6% | +180.8% |
| ── US Indices ── | |||||
| S&P 500 | -1.1% | -0.0% | +14.0% | +9.2% | +25.2% |
| NASDAQ | -1.9% | -0.7% | +20.2% | +12.6% | +34.6% |
| Dow Jones | +0.1% | +2.2% | +12.1% | +7.6% | +22.5% |
| ── International Semis Markets ── | |||||
| KOSPI (Korea) | +3.0% | +14.5% | +59.3% | +113.2% | +198.1% |
| TAIEX (Taiwan) | +7.7% | +15.7% | +38.5% | +60.4% | +107.8% |
| ── Crypto & Commodities ── | |||||
| Bitcoin | -2.2% | -16.6% | -10.0% | -27.7% | -39.2% |
| Gold | -2.7% | -6.9% | -4.3% | -2.7% | +25.0% |
| WTI Crude | -8.3% | -23.3% | -19.8% | +29.0% | -1.2% |
📰 News Summary
1. BofA Raises ASML Price Target to $2,345, Maintains Buy [10] Jun 22, 2026 — BofA analysts raised their price target for ASML to $2,345 from $2,268, citing strong EUV demand and High-NA adoption. 📎 Read more →
2. ASML Confirms No EUV Shipments to China After US Concerns [10] Jun 22, 2026 — ASML states it has not shipped EUV chipmaking tools to China, addressing US government concerns about technology transfer. 📎 Read more →
3. Why I’m Not Selling ASML After a 230% Gain [10] Jun 22, 2026 — The Dutch lithography leader remains a strong long-term investment according to multiple analyst notes. 📎 Read more →
(Sources: Motley Fool, BofA, Stocktwits)
📚 Sources
| # | Source | Data Used |
|---|---|---|
| [1] | MarketBeat ASML Forecast | Analyst ratings, price targets, consensus breakdown |
| [2] | Benzinga ASML Ratings | Analyst ratings, high/low price targets |
| [3] | Yahoo Finance (ASML) | Stock price, financials, market cap, volume, bid-ask spread |
| [4] | Yahoo Finance Key Statistics | P/E ratios, EPS, short interest, shares outstanding, beta, dividend yield |
| [5] | Fintel ASML | Institutional ownership, top holders, fund sentiment |
| [6] | Yahoo Finance Options | Options chain — open interest, volume, put/call ratios |
| [7] | Macrotrends ASML Revenue | Annual revenue, historical financials |
| [8] | Macrotrends ASML FCF | Free cash flow data |
| [9] | ASML IR | Management & corporate governance, product information |
| [10] | SEC EDGAR | Insider transactions (Form 4), institutional holdings (13F) |
All data is for informational purposes only. Verify independently before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or trading advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
References
[1] Yahoo Finance [2] QuantBrainAI [3] Google TimesFM [4] ↗ [5] ↗ [6] Yahoo Finance
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