NVIDIA Corporation
📈 TradingView Chart
NVDA carries a Strong Buy consensus from 59 analysts with a mean price target finance.yahoo.com of $298.42. The high estimate reaches $500.00 while the low sits at $180.00. Current price ($200.42) trades 33% below the mean target.
Technical Analysis
📊 Technical Snapshot
| Indicator | Signal | Value |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 🟡 Neutral | 33.2 |
| MACD | 🔴 Bearish | -2.6565749741108675 |
| Bollinger Bands | 🟡 Neutral | Upper $233.49 / Mid $217.00 / Lower $200.52 |
| SMA (50) | 🔴 Below | $205.50 |
| SMA (200) | 🟢 Above | $188.79 |
| OBV | 🔴 Bearish | 🔴 Downtrend |
| ATR (14) | 🟡 Elevated | 4.4% |
| Volume | 🟡 Neutral | Normal |
📈 Multi-Agent Strategy Signals
| Strategy Signal | Signal | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 Trend & Momentum | ||
| MA Crossover | 🟡 Neutral | Price vs SMA crossovers — no clear signal. |
| Trend Following | 🟢 Bullish | Higher highs/lows on weekly. |
| Momentum | 🟡 Neutral | RSI, MACD readings — RSI at 41.2. |
| 💰 Valuation & Growth Quality | ||
| P/E Ratio | 🟢 Bullish | Trailing 31.9x / Fwd 15.7x — earnings catching up to price. |
| EPS Growth | 🟢 Bullish | Forward multiple compression narrative intact. |
| Market Position | 🟢 Bullish | ~$4854.4B market cap, S&P 500 inclusion catalyst. |
| 📊 Volume & Flow | ||
| OBV Trend | 🔴 Bearish | OBV trending mixed. |
| Volume Activity | 🟡 Neutral | Normal volume. |
| Volatility (ATR) | 🔴 Normal | 0.0% daily range — size positions accordingly. |
| 🌐 Market Dynamics | ||
| 52W Position | 🟡 Neutral | 15.3% below 52W high of $236.54. |
| Sector Rel. Strength | 🟢 Bullish | Sector comparison. |
| Macro Sensitivity | 🟡 Neutral | Monitor macro conditions. |
| 🔧 Technical Patterns | ||
| Bollinger Position | 🟡 Neutral | Price inside bands but near upper. |
| MACD Histogram | 🔴 Bearish | -2.66 — momentum accelerating. |
| MA Alignment | 🟢 Bullish | SMA20 > SMA50 > SMA200 — textbook. |
| RSI Regime | 🟡 Neutral | RSI at 41.2, approaching overbought. |
Market Intelligence
🎲 Game Theory Equilibrium
The multi-agent game model positions NVDA within the ai (compute) sector. The equilibrium score reflects network effects from interconnected ecosystem participants.
| Metric | Solo Score | Equilibrium Score | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 0.872 | 1.023 | +0.151 |
Ecosystem force: 50.2% | Signal: bullish | Confidence: medium [DeepSeek LLM]
Top Influencers:
| Player | Power | Weight | Contribution | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 0.758 | +0.7 | +0.5306 | us-compute |
| AMD | 0.702 | +-0.6 | +-0.4212 | us-compute |
| ASML | 0.672 | +0.5 | +0.3360 | fab-tools |
| MSFT | 0.742 | +0.4 | +0.2968 | us-ai-lab |
| OPENAI | 0.720 | +0.4 | +0.2880 | us-ai-lab-private |
Scenario Probabilities
| Scenario | Probability | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| 🔵 Best Case | 24% | Ecosystem tailwinds accelerate (NVDA scaling, cloud capex surge) — but competitors likely saw it first |
| 🟡 Base Case | 47% | Current equilibrium holds — though our data lags competitors’ |
| 🔴 Worst Case | 29% | Export controls widen or competitor disruption — risk likely understated by public data |
🤖 TimesFM AI Forecast
Google’s TimesFM 2.5 foundation model forecasts the next 10 trading days using price history patterns. This is a zero-shot model — no fine-tuning, no overfitting.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Signal | 🔴 Bearish |
| Trend | ↘️ Bearish (confidence 10%) |
| Forecast Volatility | 13.66% avg daily 80% CI width |
| Model | TimesFM 2.5 (200M params, 16K context) |
| Context Window | 60 trading days |
📊 Forecast Table
| Day | Point Forecast | 80% Lower | 80% Upper | Range ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $208.58 | $200.41 | $218.00 | ±$8.80 |
| 2 | $208.01 | $198.02 | $219.23 | ±$10.60 |
| 3 | $206.66 | $195.71 | $219.36 | ±$11.83 |
| 4 | $206.27 | $194.58 | $220.34 | ±$12.88 |
| 5 | $206.26 | $193.13 | $221.42 | ±$14.14 |
| 6 | $205.57 | $191.89 | $222.15 | ±$15.13 |
| 7 | $204.75 | $189.97 | $222.23 | ±$16.13 |
| 8 | $204.68 | $188.86 | $223.50 | ±$17.32 |
| 9 | $205.09 | $188.56 | $224.85 | ±$18.14 |
| 10 | $204.62 | $187.66 | $225.56 | ±$18.95 |
Interpretation: The forecast trend is determined by the slope of the point forecast. The 80% confidence interval captures the model’s uncertainty [DeepSeek LLM] — narrower bands indicate higher confidence. Anomaly flags trigger when the current price falls outside the model’s expected range, suggesting a potential regime change or news-driven move.
Sentiment & Flow
🐋 Smart Money Sentiment / Market Flow
Insider Ownership: 3.98% [SEC EDGAR] Institutional Ownership: 70.86% of float [SEC EDGAR] Institution Count: 10
Top Institutional Holders
| Holder | Shares | % Out |
|---|---|---|
| Blackrock Inc. | 1,925,533,174 | ~7.9% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | 1,538,550,382 | ~6.4% |
| State Street Corporation | 993,885,601 | ~4.1% |
| FMR, LLC | 993,852,968 | ~4.1% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | 601,327,167 | ~2.5% |
Top 5 concentration: ~25.0% of outstanding shares
Insider Activity (Last 6 Months)
- 🟢 Purchases: 0 shares (0 txns)
- 🔴 Sales: 19,588,596 shares (99 txns)
- Net Shares Sold: 19,588,596 shares (99 txns)
Verdict: All insider activity is selling — no executive has bought NVDA shares on the open market in the last 6 months. The magnitude is modest relative to total executive holdings but the direction is unambiguous.
Recent Notable Transactions | 2026-06-04 00:00:00 | STEVENS MARK A | 1,000,000 shares | | 2026-06-04 00:00:00 | STEVENS MARK A | 307,500 shares | | 2026-06-03 00:00:00 | NEAL STEPHEN C. | 15,500 shares | | 2026-05-27 00:00:00 | DABIRI JOHN O | 625 shares | | 2026-03-20 00:00:00 | STEVENS MARK A | 221,682 shares |
Data source: yfinance SEC filings (13F) for institutional holdings, Form 4 filings for insider transactions.
Options Market (3 Nearest Expirations)
| Expiration | Call OI | Put OI | P/C OI Ratio | Call Vol | Put Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | 531,702 | 321,252 | 0.60 | 378,163 | 269,586 |
| 2026-06-15 | 48,515 | 17,972 | 0.37 | 42,291 | 54,873 |
| 2026-06-17 | 21,684 | 10,648 | 0.49 | 20,529 | 17,670 |
Data source: yfinance options chains.
Short Interest
- Shares Short: 284,722,716
- Short % of Float: 1.22% [Yahoo Finance]
- Days to Cover (Short Ratio): 1.71
- Signal: Low short interest relative to float — limited squeeze potential.
- Month-over-Month: 🔴 Increased 1,796,627 shares (0.6%) [Yahoo Finance]
Bid-Ask Spread: 0.95% (🟡 Tight spread) [Yahoo Finance]
Data source: yfinance — short interest reported bi-monthly by exchanges.
About NVIDIA Corporation
HQ: Santa Clara, CA | CEO: Mr. Jen-Hsun Huang | Employees: ~42,000 | Market Cap: ~$4854.4B | Revenue: $253.49B
NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company. The company operates through two segments, Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. The company’s products are used in gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive markets. The company sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system integrators and distributors, independent software vendors, cloud service providers, add-in board manufacturers, distributors, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, and other ecosystem participants worldwide. The company has a strategic collaboration with Tech Mahindra Limited, Lumentum Holdings Inc., Nebius Group N.V., IREN Limited, and SK hynix Inc. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
Products & Services
- Custom application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) for hyperscale AI
- Ethernet solutions (controllers, adapters, switches, transceivers)
- Interconnect products including PAM4 DSPs, silicon photonics, and CPO chipsets
- Storage controllers (HDD, SSD, NVMe, NVMe over Fabrics)
Highlights
- +85% YoY revenue growth [Yahoo Finance]
- Market capitalization of ~$4854.4B
- Free cash flow of $46.34B [Yahoo Finance]
- Beta of 2.20 (high volatility)
- Dividend yield: N/A
Future Growth
- Custom AI ASIC programs with multiple hyperscale partners driving design wins
- 1.6T optical interconnect transition on the horizon
- Expanding data center connectivity portfolio
Market Context & Outlook
📊 Market Context
| Market Context | 1W | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ── NVDA Performance ── | |||||
| NVDA | -6.6% | -8.6% | +9.6% | +7.6% | +39.4% |
| SOX | -12.3% | +1.0% | +59.7% | +72.3% | +132.8% |
| ── US Indices ── | |||||
| S&P 500 | -3.8% | -2.0% | +8.9% | +6.2% | +20.3% |
| NASDAQ | -6.3% | -4.2% | +12.8% | +8.3% | +27.7% |
| Dow Jones | -1.5% | +0.4% | +6.9% | +3.9% | +16.5% |
| ── International Semis Markets ── | |||||
| KOSPI (Korea) | -12.3% | -0.9% | +38.0% | +79.7% | +160.5% |
| TAIEX (Taiwan) | -7.8% | +0.5% | +26.1% | +45.4% | +87.4% |
| ── Crypto & Commodities ── | |||||
| Bitcoin | -2.7% | -22.9% | -12.5% | -30.0% | -42.9% |
| Gold | -8.1% | -13.6% | -20.3% | -5.7% | +22.8% |
| WTI Crude | -4.4% | -6.4% | -4.1% | +59.9% | +41.3% |
📰 News Summary
1. 1. AI stocks: MANGOS ascends, replacing FAANG position Nvidia is now part of the new “MANGOS” acronym (Meta, Anthropic, Nvidia, Google, OpenAI, Microsoft), signaling its central role in the AI megacap landscape. Read more
Key Takeaway: The dominant narrative is strong AI-driven demand sustaining revenue growth (“AI stocks: MANGOS ascends, replacing FAANG position”) — offset by regulatory and export-control risk that warrants monitoring. Weigh these catalysts against the technical signals above before positioning. (Sources: Multiple financial news outlets)
# Score derivation (from the pipeline's game-state.json):
import json
state = json.load(open('scripts/data/NVDA/game-state.json'))
score = int(state['game_equilibrium']['equilibrium_score'] * 100)
print(f'Score: {{score}}/100') # clamped to [0, 100]Trading Playbook
Use these concrete steps to apply the analysis above — every level comes from the NVDA data already in this report:
- Set your invalidation level. A daily close below $180 support invalidates the Buy thesis — reduce exposure rather than averaging down.
- Define the upside. The next resistance sits at $241 with the analyst mean target at $298.42. Scale out in tranches between these two levels to lock in gains as price approaches the target.
- Check the score before adding. The current NVDA score is 100/100 (Buy) — derived from the game-theory equilibrium, so re-read
game-state.jsonbefore any new entry. - Size for the ATR. If position sizing is new to you, start with a fixed-fraction allocation so a 2× ATR adverse move costs no more than one percent of your account.
- Log the thesis. Write down the decision summary (
🟢 Strong Buy — 100/100, NVDA trades 33% below analyst mean target of $298.42 (-$7.77, -7.7...) so you can audit your entry against the original reasoning next week.
Recommended next step: monitor the next earnings print and the news summary above — set an alert on $180 and $241 and adjust the playbook as the levels update.
All data is for informational purposes only. Verify independently before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or trading advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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