Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
📈 TradingView Chart
TSM carries a Strong Buy consensus from 18 analysts with a mean price target [1] of $467.84. The high estimate reaches $600.00 while the low sits at $354.00. Current price ($408.75) trades 13% below the mean target.
Technical Analysis
📊 Technical Snapshot
| Indicator | Signal | Value |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 🟡 Bullish | 63.3 |
| MACD | 🔴 Bearish | -0.5563116680048399 |
| Bollinger Bands | 🟡 Neutral | Upper $449.44 / Mid $416.66 / Lower $383.88 |
| SMA (50) | 🟢 Above | $393.07 |
| SMA (200) | 🟢 Above | $327.34 |
| OBV | 🟢 Bullish | 🟢 Uptrend |
| ATR (14) | 🟡 Elevated | 4.2% |
| Volume | 🟡 Neutral | Normal |
📈 Multi-Agent Strategy Signals
| Strategy Signal | Signal | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 Trend & Momentum | ||
| MA Crossover | 🟡 Neutral | Price vs SMA crossovers — no clear signal. |
| Trend Following | 🟢 Bullish | Higher highs/lows on weekly. |
| Momentum | 🟢 Bullish | RSI, MACD readings — RSI at 100.0. |
| 💰 Valuation & Growth Quality | ||
| P/E Ratio | 🟢 Bullish | Trailing 35.1x / Fwd 20.9x — earnings catching up to price. |
| EPS Growth | 🟢 Bullish | Forward multiple compression narrative intact. |
| Market Position | 🟢 Bullish | ~$2120.0B market cap, S&P 500 inclusion catalyst. |
| 📊 Volume & Flow | ||
| OBV Trend | 🟢 Bullish | OBV trending higher, accumulation confirmed. |
| Volume Activity | 🟡 Neutral | Normal volume. |
| Volatility (ATR) | 🔴 Normal | 0.0% daily range — size positions accordingly. |
| 🌐 Market Dynamics | ||
| 52W Position | 🟡 Neutral | 9.2% below 52W high of $450.16. |
| Sector Rel. Strength | 🟢 Bullish | Sector comparison. |
| Macro Sensitivity | 🟡 Neutral | Monitor macro conditions. |
| 🔧 Technical Patterns | ||
| Bollinger Position | 🟡 Neutral | Price inside bands but near upper. |
| MACD Histogram | 🟢 Bullish | N/A — momentum accelerating. |
| MA Alignment | 🟢 Bullish | SMA20 > SMA50 > SMA200 — textbook. |
| RSI Regime | 🔴 Bearish | RSI at 100.0, approaching overbought. |
Market Intelligence
🎲 Game Theory Equilibrium
The multi-agent game model positions TSM within the ai (compute) sector. The equilibrium score reflects network effects from interconnected ecosystem participants.
| Metric | Solo Score | Equilibrium Score | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 0.758 | 0.915 | +0.157 |
Ecosystem force: 52.2% | Signal: bullish | Confidence: medium
Top Influencers:
| Player | Power | Weight | Contribution | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 0.872 | +0.6 | +0.5232 | us-compute |
| ASML | 0.672 | +0.6 | +0.4032 | fab-tools |
| AVGO | 0.784 | +0.5 | +0.3920 | us-compute |
| AMD | 0.702 | +0.5 | +0.3510 | us-compute |
| GOOG | 0.756 | +0.4 | +0.3024 | us-ai-lab |
Scenario Probabilities
| Scenario | Probability | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| 🔵 Best Case | 24% | Ecosystem tailwinds accelerate (NVDA scaling, cloud capex surge) — but competitors likely saw it first |
| 🟡 Base Case | 47% | Current equilibrium holds — though our data lags competitors’ |
| 🔴 Worst Case | 29% | Export controls widen or competitor disruption — risk likely understated by public data |
Sentiment & Flow
🐋 Smart Money Sentiment / Market Flow
Insider Ownership: 0.04% Institutional Ownership: 15.64% of float Institution Count: 10
Top Institutional Holders
| Holder | Shares | % Out |
|---|---|---|
| FMR, LLC | 60,393,190 | ~1.2% |
| Capital World Investors | 32,886,937 | ~0.6% |
| Sanders Capital, LLC | 28,060,092 | ~0.5% |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 23,984,642 | ~0.5% |
| Van Eck Associates Corporation | 19,262,004 | ~0.4% |
Top 5 concentration: ~3.2% of outstanding shares
Insider Activity (Last 6 Months)
- 🟢 Purchases: 1,037 shares (3 txns)
- 🔴 Sales: 0 shares (0 txns)
- Net Shares Purchased: 1,037 shares (3 txns)
Verdict: Insiders are net buyers — 1,037 shares bought vs 0 sold.
Recent Notable Transactions | 2026-05-20 00:00:00 | TIEN BOR-ZEN | 17 shares | | 2026-04-28 00:00:00 | TIEN BOR-ZEN | 20 shares | | 2026-03-31 00:00:00 | BURNS URSULA M | 1,000 shares |
Data source: yfinance SEC filings (13F) for institutional holdings, Form 4 filings for insider transactions.
Options Market (3 Nearest Expirations)
| Expiration | Call OI | Put OI | P/C OI Ratio | Call Vol | Put Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 18,494 | 17,865 |
| 2026-06-18 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 69,186 | 26,218 |
| 2026-06-26 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2,704 | 2,074 |
Data source: yfinance options chains.
Short Interest
- Shares Short: 28,282,997
- Short % of Float: 0.58%
- Days to Cover (Short Ratio): 2.21
- Signal: Low short interest relative to float — limited squeeze potential.
- Month-over-Month: 🔴 Increased 1,570,194 shares (5.9%)
Data source: yfinance — short interest reported bi-monthly by exchanges.
About Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
HQ: Hsinchu City | CEO: Dr. C. C. Wei Ph.D. | Employees: ~76,907 | Market Cap: ~$2120.0B | Revenue: N/A
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
Products & Services
- Custom application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) for hyperscale AI
- Ethernet solutions (controllers, adapters, switches, transceivers)
- Interconnect products including PAM4 DSPs, silicon photonics, and CPO chipsets
- Storage controllers (HDD, SSD, NVMe, NVMe over Fabrics)
Highlights
- +35% YoY revenue growth
- Market capitalization of ~$2120.0B
- Free cash flow of $719.16B
- Beta of 1.25 (high volatility)
- Dividend yield: N/A
Future Growth
- Custom AI ASIC programs with multiple hyperscale partners driving design wins
- 1.6T optical interconnect transition on the horizon
- Expanding data center connectivity portfolio
Market Context & Outlook
📊 Market Context
| Market Context | 1W | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ── TSM Performance ── | |||||
| TSM | -4.2% | +3.9% | +21.0% | +41.2% | +109.3% |
| SOX | -7.8% | +7.5% | +59.9% | +78.7% | +146.4% |
| ── US Indices ── | |||||
| S&P 500 | -2.9% | -0.2% | +9.0% | +7.9% | +23.0% |
| NASDAQ | -5.2% | -2.2% | +13.0% | +10.5% | +31.1% |
| Dow Jones | -0.8% | +2.5% | +7.3% | +5.8% | +19.0% |
| ── International Semis Markets ── | |||||
| KOSPI (Korea) | -10.4% | +1.2% | +41.0% | +83.6% | +166.2% |
| TAIEX (Taiwan) | -5.9% | +2.6% | +28.7% | +48.4% | +91.2% |
| ── Crypto & Commodities ── | |||||
| Bitcoin | -1.7% | -22.0% | -11.6% | -29.3% | -42.3% |
| Gold | -8.4% | -12.3% | -18.8% | -5.2% | +23.5% |
| WTI Crude | -1.8% | -10.6% | -7.4% | +59.2% | +34.1% |
📰 News Summary
1. 1. Taiwan Semiconductor Sales Rise 30% In May, Remain On Target TSMC’s May sales report confirms the company is tracking toward its Q2 revenue guidance, reinforcing near-term demand stability. Read more
2. TSMC Sales Jump as AI Demand Holds Strong — AI chip demand continues to drive TSMC’s advanced manufacturing momentum, supporting the core thesis for TSM’s revenue growth. Read more
3. Scoop: Republican lawmakers challenge TSMC’s Washington clout — A group of congressional Republicans is urging the U.S. International Trade Commission to enforce U.S. patent rights against TSMC, introducing potential regulatory friction for TSM’s U.S. operations. Read more
4. Taiwan Export Curbs Put TSMC China Exposure And Valuation In Focus — Taiwan is weighing stricter export controls on advanced AI chips to China, including potential criminal penalties, which could limit TSMC’s sales of leading-edge chips and pressure TSM’s China revenue exposure. Read more
Key Takeaway: The dominant narrative is strong AI-driven demand sustaining revenue growth (“Taiwan Semiconductor Sales Rise 30% In May, Remain On Target”, “TSMC Sales Jump as AI Demand Holds Strong”, “Scoop: Republican lawmakers challenge TSMC’s Washington clout”) — offset by regulatory and export-control risk that warrants monitoring. Weigh these catalysts against the technical signals above before positioning. (Sources: Multiple financial news outlets)
# Score derivation (from the pipeline's game-state.json):
import json
state = json.load(open('scripts/data/TSM/game-state.json'))
score = int(state['game_equilibrium']['equilibrium_score'] * 100)
print(f'Score: {{score}}/100') # clamped to [0, 100]Trading Playbook
Use these concrete steps to apply the analysis above — every level comes from the TSM data already in this report:
- Set your invalidation level. A daily close below $385 support invalidates the Buy thesis — reduce exposure rather than averaging down.
- Define the upside. The next resistance sits at $514 with the analyst mean target at $467.84. Scale out in tranches between these two levels to lock in gains as price approaches the target.
- Check the score before adding. The current TSM score is 91/100 (Buy) — derived from the game-theory equilibrium, so re-read
game-state.jsonbefore any new entry. - Size for the ATR. If position sizing is new to you, start with a fixed-fraction allocation so a 2× ATR adverse move costs no more than 1% of your account.
- Log the thesis. Write down the decision summary (
🟢 Strong Buy — 91/100, TSM trades 9% below analyst mean target of $467.84 (+$0.00, +0.00%)...) so you can audit your entry against the original reasoning next week.
Recommended next step: monitor the next earnings print and the news summary above — set an alert on $385 and $514 and adjust the playbook as the levels update.
📚 Sources
| Source | Data Used |
|---|---|
| Yahoo Finance (TSM) | Stock price, financials, market cap, volume, bid-ask spread |
| Yahoo Finance Key Statistics | P/E ratios, EPS, short interest, shares outstanding |
| SEC EDGAR | Insider transactions (Form 4), institutional holdings (13F) |
| Yahoo Finance Options | Options chain — open interest, volume, put/call ratios |
| Finviz (TSM) | Analyst consensus, price targets, technical indicators |
| TradingView (TSM) | Interactive chart, historical price data |
| DeepSeek LLM | News summarization and multi-agent strategy analysis |
All data is for informational purposes only. Verify independently before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or trading advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
References
[1] Read more [2] Read more [3] Read more [4] Read more [5] Yahoo Finance (TSM) [6] Yahoo Finance Key Statistics
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